Week 14 Picks & Fantasy

Tennessee at Indianapolis (Colts -4.5)

I love the Colts at home where they are 5-1 ATS while the Titans are 2-4 against it on the road.  If this Colts team really wants to make the playoffs, and they should, they need to win this game.  The are currently in with their 8-4  record but still have to play division/conference leader Houston twice over their last four.  That turns today and week 16 in KC into “must win” games.  The Colts keep rolling and I don’t see them having a let down at home.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (Steelers -9)

The Chargers are putrid and they are playing for nothing.  Even if they win out the Norv Turner pink slip is already written, it’s only a matter of time now.  Roethlisberger is playing  and Polamalu is stringing together a few games in a row and should be rounding into top form.  The Steelers D is first in the NFL allowing only 166.7 yards per game through the air and I don’t see San Diego traveling across the country in a meaningless, cold weather game bucking that trend.

NY Jets at Jacksonville (Jaguars +3)

The Jets are bad and Sanchez is worse.  Sure, this may be his last chance to save his NFL career (at least in New York) but I don’t care, he is playing bad.  He is turning the ball over way too much and has no confidence in himself nor his teammates.  You can not compete at the NFL level without confidence.  The Jag’s are playing for nothing EXCEPT 2013 roster spots, don’t discount that.  Backup turned starter Chad Henne wants a job next year and is very familiar with Rex Ryan and they Jets from his days as Miami’s signal caller.  Take the home dog here.

Other games i like: Miami +10 @ SF.  Dolphins always play the West tough.  Philly +9 @ TB.  The Buc’s win this game but 9 is way too many points for a defense that’s last in the NFL against the pass allowing 309.4 ypg.  Houston +3.5 @ NE.  This will be a close game either way.  New England won’t be able to protect Brady enough against the NFL MVP candidate JJ Watt led pass rush nor will they be able to run the ball effectively on the leagues second ranked (87.6 ypg) rush defense.

Fantasy

Week 14 (in most leagues) signals the beginning of the playoffs.  It also is the time where you need to forget about names and draft positions and let matchups and “what have you done for me lately” be the top two factors to determine who you start and sit.

Start: Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman. Freeman has been a pleasant surprise this year.  He is the 11th overall QB in standard scoring leagues.  But as i said earlier, matchups should be the number one determing factor in who to play this week and Freeman has a saucy one.

Start: Tampa Bay WR Mike Williams.  This is one of my favorite matchups of week 14.  The Eagles are putrid against the pass and will have their hands full trying to shut down Vincent Jackson.  Who reaps the benefits of that? Williams does.  I say he is good for no worse than 90 yards and a TD maybe more.

Start: Indianapolis RB Vick Ballard.  At some point the Colts will need to become at least mildly effective on the ground.  Donald Brown is out so that means Ballard gets the lions-share of the carries.  The Titans D give up 129 yards on the ground and that is not out of the realm of possibility in this game.  Last time these teams met, D Brown and Ballard rushed for 135 yds combined and Ballard got into the end zone on a 16 yard TD pass.

Start: St Louis WR Chris Gibson.  This just in, Danny Amendola is out and Buffalo is awful against the pass.  Someone on the Rams is going to have to catch the ball and Gibson has been the most effective at doing so.  I’d start him over Larry Fitzgerald.

Start: Tennesse WR Kenny Britt.  It all depends on what you are looking for.  If you are desperate for a WR2 or flex then  i love Kenny Britt.  Britt has caught a TD in two straight games, he is the healthiest he’s been all year and, all about the matchup again, the Colts have let up 15 TD’s to opposing WR’s and are giving up an average of 24.3 fantasy ppg to them.  Realistically Britt is a flex options with WR1 potential.

Start: Pittsburgh RB Jonathan Dwyer.  Here is the case for him, Tomlin has said no more “hot hand” approach.  Dwyer is the starter, Redman the backup and Mendenhall is inactive.  Opposing RB’s are averaging 129 yards on the ground over San Diego’s last three games and the Steelers are going to want to limit Roethlisberger’s drop back to protect his achy ribs.  Expect Dwyer to have an unspectacular but solid game against the Chargers.  80 yards and a TD is easily attainable.  It might take him 33 attempts to get there but that doesn’t matter as ypc has no effect on your fantasy game.

 Start: Minnesota TE Kyle Rudolph.  He’s had touchdowns in three straight games and he scored last time these two teams met plus the Vikings have no one else to throw to.

Deep Start: Philadelphia WR Riley Cooper.  This start might not be for everyone but if you’re really hurting and/or in a PPR format, I’d go with the former Florida standout.  As mentioned above, the Bucs’ are last in the NFL against the pass.  When these backup QB’s like Foles come in, sometimes they have more success going to guys like Cooper who aren’t the teams’ big name players but rather the player they are more comfortable with because they get reps together in practice.

Other guys I like: INDI WR TY Hilton, NYG RB Ahmad Bradshaw, STL RB Steven Jackson, WAS RB Alfred Morris, PIT WR Antonio Brown and NO WR Lance Moore.

Sit: Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald.  If you are lucky enough to be in the playoffs and have Fitz on your team, congratulations.  Now sit him down and scour the waiver wire if you haven’t already.  Just based on the matchup alone I’d probably go with the aforementioned Riley Cooper over the future HOF.  SEA CB Browner is playing and should be effective against the John Skelton led pass attack.  Fun fact, Larry Fitzgerald has the most red zone targets without a touchdown catch ( in the rz) in the NFL.

Sit: New York Jets RB Shonn Greene.  If i had to, I’d rather start Bilal Powell.  Who, when healthy  has been more effective than Greene. To describe Greene’s running style as “plodding” would even be generous.

Sit: Dallas QB Tony Romo.  Only two QB’s all year have thrown for multiple TD’s against the Bengals and only one passer has topped 300 yards.  There are better options out there.

Sit: San Diego RB Ryan Matthews.  See Larry Fitzgerald above.  Matthews won’t bust his slump against the Pittsburgh defense in Pitt.  He’s only had double-digit fantasy points once all year!

Sit: Miami RB Reggie Bush.  Usually you should sit every RB who faces the vaunted 49er defense and Bush is no different.  He’s had to compete with second year runner Daniel Thomas for carries over the past five games to the point where it is definitely a “time-share” situation with Bush on the losing end because Thomas gets the red zone touches.  FYI sit Thomas as well.  Oh by the way, all-world LT Jake Long is on IR after sustaining a season ending triceps injury last week.  I want nothing to do with the Miami backfield.

Sit: Buffalo WR Steve Johnson.  The Rams defense might not have much but it does have a legit shutdown corner in Cortland Finnegan who should have no problem taking  a second-third tier WR1 like Steve Johsnon out of the equation.  In fact, he has made a career out of shutting down Steve Johnson types.

Sit: San Francisco RB Frank Gore.  It has been a very nice year for Gore who is the ninth best RB in standard scoring leagues.  BUT Miami only gives up 97.7 yard on the ground and defense travels.  It might be hard to do figuring you rode Gore this far and i still like him as more of a flex option but do not expect Gore to be the typical RB1 he usually is and single handedly win your playoff game for you.  I expect guys like BJGE, Mikel Leshoure and Jonathan Dwyer all to have better games.

Other guys I don’t like: SF TE Vernon Davis, CAR WR Steve Smith, DAL WR Austin Miles, BUF RB Fred Jackson, ATL RB Michael Turner, DAL RB Demarco Murray and PHI RB Bryce Brown.

New England 23 Miami 16 Game Notes

Tannehill Scores

“‘Tom, 24/40 238yds 1 TD 1 INT and 4 sacks isn’t very Brady-like now is it?”

For those of you in a hurry I’ll give you the twitter-ized version: They (NE) have Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez and we (MIA) don’t.   Miami loses to the Patriots 23-16.  That’s all you need to know in 140 characters or less.

I’ll keep going for those of you who’d like to know more.  I watched every single snap of the Miami-New England game.  Some multiple times.  On every play I asked myself, “Who more accomplished their goal during that play?”  and assigned a winner based solely on that criteria.

For the game, the Patriots won 89 of 167 plays, or 53% of them.

Miami shot themselves in the foot early.  After receiving the ball to start the game they couldn’t even execute something as simple as a ” 3 and out” on offense.  The punter Brandon Fields couldn’t handle the low snap and New England took over first and 10 from Miami’s 12.

A touchdown run by Ridley ensued.  7-0 Patriots.

On the Patriots next possession the Dolphins did a nice job of playing a “bend but don’t break” style of defense which kept this game reasonably close all day.  Aided by a holding penalty and some well-timed 3rd down pressure on Brady, Miami held New England to zero points after Gostkowski missed a 49 yard FG.

Miami got the ball at midfield but failed to do anything with it and is forced to punt.  On second down, Tannehill overthrew a wide open Brian Hartline.  It would have been a touchdown had it been completed.  This was the first of two occasions in which Tannehill showed that he struggles to hit wide open receivers.

Miami pins New England inside their own 3 and three plays later #20 Jones does a great job of covering #81 Hernandez.  He picked Brady off  it off and took s it to the house! BUT…FLAG.  Two of them actually.  Off-setting and on the return.  Miami keeps the ball but loses the touchdown.

The Miami penalty hurts them.  They wind up trading seven for three when all they can muster is a 44 yard Dan Carpenter FG.  And are lucky to get that because #33 D Thomas put the ball on the ground but #68 Incognito bailed him out and RG John Jerry got flagged for holding.  7-3 Patriots.

END of the 1st QUARTER

On the opening drive of the 2nd quarter Miami committed their second special teams turnover of the game.  On 3rd & short Miami goes all out for the punt block, missed the ball but nail the punter, 15yd personal foul, 1st down Patriots.  Awful job out of #27 Jimmy Wilson on the play.  That can not happen.

After a soft pass interference penalty on #2o Jones and some missed tackles by #25 ( I don’t know who he is and don’t feel the need to look it up) and #58 Dansby, on 2nd & G from the Miami 7 #12 Brady makes the perfect adjustment at the line and hits #83 Welker on a screen for an easy touchdown.

 14-3 Patriots and there is  a lot of time left for this game to get out of hand.

Miami gets the ball and it gets worse.  The offense goes nowhere on 1st and 2nd down.  Then on 3rd & 4 the Patriots backup LB #99 Trevor Scott dominated Miami backup (Jake Long left early with a triceps injury and did not return) T #75 Nate Garner and gets the ever valuable sack-fumble on Tannehill which Wilfork recovers (and promptly gives to Mrs. Wilfork).

Miami does a good job of holding The Pats to a field goal.  Its 17-3 Miami and not looking good.

Miami takes over 1st & 10 at their own 20.  HOLDING #80 Fasano.  1st & 20 at their own 10.  This is starting to get ugly.

FALSE START #82 Hartline.  1st & 25 at their own 5.  It’s going from bad to worse with way too much time on the clock.  It looked like things were about to get ugly…

Only they didn’t.

From there, Miami goes on an impressive 13 play 95 yard drive which ends with #17 Tannehill calling his own number and diving into the end zone off a nice play fake.  TOUCHDOWN!

17-10 Patriots.  We got a game folks.

On the drive Miami “won” 10/13 plays and had nice individual efforts by Fasano, Hartline and Bess picking up critical yards to keep the drive alive and by #68 Incognito and #51  Pouncey paving the way for them.

New England takes a knee to end the half.  They go into the locker room with a seven point lead but the game very much still in doubt.

New England gets the ball to start the 3rd quarter but goes three and out.  On 3rd & 3 #55 Misi gave a superior effort by taking on not one but two blocks to set the edge and force NE to punt.

For the rest of the 3rd quarter Miami and New England trade punts.  On a critical 3rd down #91 Wake got his 10th sack of the year which knocked Brady and the Patriots out of field goal range.  And on a just as critical 3rd & 14 for Miami #15 Bess turned what looked to be a sure 1st down into punt.

I don’t know what #15’s problem is but I am not impressed with him at all.  I have never seen a WR who catches the ball on 3rd down short of the sticks more often than he does.  It’s like he is allergic to first downs.  Between the drops, not being on the same page as his QB and plays like this which are all too frequent, I’m done with him.

3rd quarter ends with New England leading 17-10 but deep in Dolphin territory with a 3rd & 1.

Which NE’s #81 Aaron Hernandez converts.  Only fitting, he had the catch on 2nd down to set up 3rd and short then he finished it.

Trouble.  NE has it 1st & G from the 2.

But wait.  Again, bend but don’t break.  Sacks by #20 Jones and #55 Misi book ending a 2nd down Welker drop in the end zone (nice pressure by #98 Odrick may have played a part in that) and all of a sudden the Pats have to settle for a FG.

20-10 New England and if you believe in moral victories, Miami’s defense just scored a huge on there.

Miami gets the ball on their own 20 and goes on another impressive 13 play drive which ended in points.  Unfortunately they have to settle for a field goal after their own trip to the red zone.

But it is another drive where Miami left points on the board.  On the third play of the drive, from their own 33, Tannehill severely under-throws a wide open #82 Hartline on another play which could have easily ended with a touchdown instead of an incomplete pass.

The drive was highlighted by a tough 4th & 1 conversion by #33 Thomas on the NE 22.  #68 Incognito basically won the play himself by flat-out dominating Patriots’ all-world DT #75 Vince Wilfork.

With 8:28 remaining Patriots 20 Miami 13 and the Dolphins have all three of their timeouts.  It’s official, game on.

But, being the savvy veteran team they are, led by the mad scientist Bill Beli-cheat himself, New England gets the ball and all but ends the game.

They take over on their own 20 and march down the field on a 16 play drive that ends in a field goal which makes it a two score game but more importantly they strangled 7:18 from the clock and ate up all three of Miami’s timeouts AND the two-minute warning.

With only 70 seconds remaining, Patriots lead 23-13 and a two score game means Miami chances of winning are all but over.  But they do make it interesting until the bitter end with two big “chunk” yards completions to the sidelines.  They muster a FG to make it 23-16 and ensure they at least cover the spread as a 9pt underdog but that’s all.  New England easily recovered the onside kick attempt, game over.

It was a loss, a tough one at that but there were some positive things to come of it.

For Miami #55, #96 and #20 all had exceptional games to lead the defense.  I thought the Incognito-Wilfork battle was pretty even and very fun to watch.  Wilfork dominated early but Incognito did a nice job of battling back and did some dominating of his own.  The Patriots entered the game having given up only 15 sacks on the year and the Miami defense got to Brady a season high four times.  

Click to watch the full game highlights here.

Turkey Day Football Notes

• 

  Brandon Moore’s butt meets Mark Sanchez’s face

• In case you missed it, on Thursday night the Jets proved they only need 53 seconds to lose an entire football game.
• Stat of the Day: Brandon Moore’s ass had more sacks then the entire Jets defense.   Sanchez hits the hole, hard.
• The Jets and Patriots played the funniest game of football I’ve ever seen.  The Jets have comedic timing that is surpassed maybe only by the 3 Stooges.  They can’t even fumble right, the ball goes flying through the air.
• Looking for a fun game to play with your buddies?  Watch the Jets-Patriots game and drink every time they say the name of a former Miami Dolphin player. You’ll be wrecked by halftime. Donald Thomas leads the way, drink.  Clyde Gates checks into the game, drink.  Lex Hilliard is the starting fullback, drink.  Offensive coordinator Tony Sparano has his hands full, drink.  That’s special teams coach Mike Westhoff, drink.  Rob Ninkovich gets the sack, drink. Welker for 14, Welker for 9, Welker for 16, drink, drink, drink.  Welker gets brought down by Yeremiah Bell, drink double.
• Every time i watch RG3 play i remember that he is better than i think he is.  Are there better examples of quarterbacks who do “more with less” than he and Andrew Luck?  There are question marks and rookies all over both of their offenses but somehow they get it done.
• On the other side of the coin, is there a better example of a quarterback who does “less with less” than Mark Sanchez?  I get it, your team sucks, deal with it, I’m sick of hearing about it.  What those rookies are accomplishing with their offenses puts your argument to shame.  Great QBs find a way to make it work, inferior ones use it as an excuse.
• Just because the play would have been reviewed (and thus overturned) if Jim Shwartz had not violated the stupidest rule in the history of the NFL does not let the referees from the Lions-Texans game off the hook.  Both the runner’s elbow and knee touched the ground.  It’s inexcusable that the refs missed that.
• So far this NFL season we have seen two touchdowns scored which have ultimately decided games that everybody watching  knew was not a touchdown except for the employees of the NFL.

#Sports Rant

I want to start off by giving a big FU to the NFL for assuming that I have 3 days to devote to watching people’s names get called out on tv. 80% of whom I’ve never heard of before and probably will never hear again. This new draft format is awful and anyone who tells you different is just a whore to the NFL that thinks they (the NFL) crap gold.

New York Knicks

With Baron Davis and Mike Bibby as your PG’s, I don’t expect you to actually beat the Heat but I do expect progress, so this is my challenge to you: stay competitive. Prove to me that you belong on the same court as Miami. Steal the next road game, take the series back to The Garden tied 1-1 and give your fans at least the illusion of hope. Then win one game at home to reward the patience of your fan base who have watched you under-perform since 1999. Do that and consider it progress and the season a success.

New York Yankees

Michael Pinieda out of the year with a torn shoulder = worst case scenario realized. How the hell did you let the Seattle Mariner’s hose you like that? Who are you, the Mets? Here are some direct quotes from GM Brian Cashman, “Right now our hopes and dreams for this player are in jeopardy” and “This is a massive decision gone wrong right now.” If I consulted my Magic 8-Ball it would read outlook not too good.

Phil Hughes. I’m done with you. I don’t know what the problem is and nor do I care anymore. I can’t wait for your banishment to the bullpen so you can toil in your own squalid mediocrity out there. You are destined to be the answer to a trivia question and just a footnote in Yankee history, nothing more.

New York Rangers

If you want to continue participating in the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs then at some point your goal scorers (ie Gaborik, Richards etc) are gonna have to start doing their job and put the puck in the back of the net.

Damn, Kreider looks like he’s the genuine real deal.

And finally (for the Rangers), all hail The King!

Miami Dolphins/Jeff Ireland

By taking the best quarterback available, Ryan Tannehill, at the eighth spot instead of the best player available, you proved to me that you have no idea what you are doing and are clueless when it comes to reading/manipulating a draft board. Simple question, if you don’t take Tannehill at 8 then who does and when? I contend he wouldn’t come off the board until Cleveland at #22.  If you were dead set on selecting Tannehill then at least you should have moved down a few spots to take him in the early to mid-teens and pick up a couple extra picks in the process. And don’t give me some BS about not having a partner to trade with because with all the shuffling and wheeling and dealing that went on in the first round I dont buy it for a second. If you couldn’t find someone to trade with on Thursday that means you didn’t try.

With the 8th pick I would have taken whoever was rated as the best overall player available instead of just the best QB. Whether it was Luke Kuechly or Michael Floyd or whomever. Then, if I really believed Tannehill was that good, I would have traded back into the first round somewhere between 9-21 and drafted him there. I’m thinking next years 1st, this years 2nd and one of the extra 3rds from CHI would be a fair price. Think of it this way, losing next years 1st is a wash because you’ll have two this year. Essentially you’re using next years pick now. And a 2nd and a 3rd is a small price to pay for a player who you deem to be a “franchise” quarterback, plus you’d still have your own 3rd rd pick. All you did on Thursday is prove that I know more about then NFL draft then you do.

You are not good enough, nor do you have enough elite top-tier NFL talent on the roster to be drafting players based on “need’ rather than “talent.” That is a luxury which only teams who are the proverbial “one player away” (like NE, PIT, GB) can afford. Right now the Miami Dolphins are one player, at EVERY position, away from being good.

More Draft Notes:

Best value pick: SD taking DE Melvin Ingram at #18. He fell that far only because teams were concerned his arms were “too short”. What a bunch of draft combine driven garbage. That’s the same type of nonsensical player evaluation logic which led to hall of fame players like Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas falling to the 3rd and 5th rds respectively, while workout warrior scrubs like Mike Mamula and Vernon Gholston became million dollar busts that left the Eagles and Jets looking like idiots. This guy is going to be a stud and make anyone who passed on him for that reason look like a moron.

Worst pick of the first round by a team not based in Miami: Seattle #15 DE/OLB Bruce Irvin. Talk about red flags, high school drop out, done jail time and arrested as recently as last month. Seems as if  Pete Carroll is still recruiting the ghettos just like he did at USC.  Most teams had him rated as a 3rd rounder.

Best draft party: Whitney Mercilus #26 Houston. Check out the video below. In addition to the girl who nearly flashed her hooch to the world, look behind the couch and notice how he basically surrounded
himself with hot white and Asian broads. Well done.

http://youtu.be/SBvK9mS5cOc

Jeff Ireland needs to go

Jeff Ireland is turning the Miami Dolphins into a second-rate franchise that struggles to bring in top free agent talent unless they grossly over-pay them like Cleveland or Buffalo, if he hasn’t done so already.  How much longer does he get to try to convince us that he actually knows what he’s doing and isn’t just horrible at his job?

Tuesday afternoon he said, “We are halfway through the player acquisition period,’’ and “Let the process play out.”  I think he thinks that he’s going to have a big second half.  I don’t see how that is even possible, unless he knows some big huge secret which we don’t.  There will be no more players available that are anywhere near the caliber of Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, Eric Winston, Mario Williams and Vincent Jackson. The right way to look at the Miami Dolphins current situation is, it’s already at the halfway point but all the free agents actually worth acquiring are gone and the Dolphins failed to get any of them.  That is a big time fail.

In regards to the acquisition of David Garrard, this is what he said, “I’ve kind of been chasing him since Chad (Henne) got hurt last year.”   There are so many problems with that statement I’m not sure where to begin.  I guess I’ll start with the obvious first: maybe if you spent less time chasing David Garrard around you would have actually caught PeytonManning.

Second, what does the fact that you even had to chase David Garrard say about your overall job performance?  It can’t be good.  If you’re the GM of an NFL franchise, and have to do anything more than just pick up a phone, call an unemployed David Garrard and say ” Hey Dave, this is an NFL team, want to be a millionaire again?”  in order to get him, then you are horrible to the point that you’re a joke.  That should be the final nail in the coffin to your firing.

Third, what’s Jeff Ireland trying to say here? What’s his point, purpose, goal, etc?  Does he really think that he is going to convince Miami fans that we didn’t lose the Peyton, Matt Flynn, and (to a much lesser extent) Alex Smith sweepstakes but rather we won the David Garrard 50/50? Does Ireland really think fans are going to start buying season tickets in droves for the chance to see David Garrard play QB?

Here is some more insight into the Dolphin free agent strategy from Ireland, “We’re going to always make value-based decisions,’’.  I don’t get this bargain basement, value shopper mentality that has permeated the Dolphin front office for years.  This constant need to scrounge through other teams trash hoping to find some buried treasure.  Fans are sick of the front office running the team like its a pawn shop by jamming second-hand players like David Garrard, Kevin Burnett and Marc Columbo down our throats. There is a reason their former teams either let them walk or let them go, it’s because they are just polished up turds and not diamonds in the rough as Ireland and Co would have you believe.

This makes me so angry that in protest I’ve cancelled my plans to buy a new Dolphin jersey this year (It was gonna be Odrick based purely on his awesome Pee-Wee Herman sack dance. Respect).  In fact, for as long as Ireland is with the team, I vow not to buy a new jersey, unless it’s a player he either signed or drafted and is now on clearance because they are no longer with the team.

Name me one thing, one move, one decision, that Ireland made which has worked out.  If you say Jake Long, then you must be kidding.  You really think that it’s a notable accomplishment when the team with the #1 draft pick makes a good decision?  Doesn’t that fall into the category of just “doing your job”?  What has Karlos Dansby really done?  You traded two 2nd round picks for a player (Marshall) who you traded after two years, and no playoff appearances, for two 3rd rounders.  Second round pick Pat White is not even in the league anymore and I’m pretty sure Shawn Murphy isn’t either.

Cameron Wake?  Maybe, but is that the best you got?  Because if that’s all, then I contend Ireland’s most notable accomplishment in his Dolphins tenure so far is calling Dez Bryant’s mother a prostitute, and that is ridiculous.  Right now if any reasonable GM in the league who was faced with the possibility of a wide receiver corps led by Brian Hartline would rather have Dez Bryant instead of Jared Odrick and Koa Misi.  And can someone please explain to me why in the 2010 draft, which was stocked full of tight ends, they did not get Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez or even Dennis Pitta, when it was obvious that the team needed an explosive tight end?

I  do not understand the lowballing of Matt Flynn.  I have to admit, when I thought it would take no less then 5 years and at least 50 mil to sign him, I wasn’t so sure it was a good move.  But when I saw he signed for only 3 years 26mil total and only 10 guaranteed that seemed like a more then fair price to pay for a potential 26 year old starting quarterback who already knows your brand new offensive system.  Maybe he would have worked out, maybe he wouldn’t.  It’s widely speculated that Miami is now going to draft a quarterback, Ryan Tannehill with the 8th overall pick in the draft.  Maybe he’s the real deal, maybe he isn’t.  But if both players are going to involve significant levels of”maybe” then why not sign Flynn and use the 8th pick to fill one of the teams other glaring needs like SS, RT, WR and a second pass rusher?  That would seem like solid strategy to me.

And speaking of the draft, that stunt you pulled with Andy Dalton last year was ridiculous (during his standard pre-draft interview, getting to know you vist to Miami before last year’s draft one of the asst coaches barged in pretending to be a “diva receiver” and started yelling about getting the ball more).  I’m sure when that plan was concocted you probably thought it was so smart, you couldn’t wait to watch it play out, the suspense was killing you.  You were sitting there on the edge of your seat enjoying the smell of your own farts, thinking it was the most brilliant breakthrough in draft evaluation since the Jimmy Johnson value chart.  Wrong, it is the second dumbest thing I have ever heard of a professional sports franchise doing (2nd to calling someone’s mother a prostitute of course).  I’m willing to bet Andy Dalton still cracks people up with that story as he warns players around the NFL not to sign with Miami because they are a joke.

Brandon Marshall

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/manhattan/nfl_star_belted_me_gal_KkFMFRvOerJNsHci3itYkO

So long and good riddance scumbag!  I knew when I saw you were traded to the Bears for only two 3rd round picks there was more to the story then we knew.  Men who are 6’4″ 230lbs should not be punching women in the face, regardless of circumstances.  Maybe if you fought for the ball as hard as you fight broads, Revis wouldn’t have completely embarrassed you with a 99yd pick 6 in week 6. I’m sure Miami will have no problem finding a receiver who drops 5 TD’s a year to replace you.  Good luck with this trash Chicago!

Peyton Manning Prediction

Here is my take on the “Peyton Decision”.  What you will read here are my own thoughts/observations/opinions not  some regurgitated information I got from ESPN (or anywhere else) that I’m trying to pass off on as my own. 

If we assume that he only wants to play for a team that has a chance at winning and making the playoffs, then  it makes no sense for him to sign with a team like the Redskins. Who even with the addition of Peyton, would still be at best only 3rd in their own division (behind the Super Bowl champion NY Giants and Dallas).  And i say even with him on the ‘Skins, the Eagles would still be a slightly better overall team (especially now that they have a real defensive coordinator).  So there’s no way Peyton is going to sign with a team that is only 4th best in their own division and thus have no shot at making the playoffs.  Plus, you don’t sign him to run your offense.  You sign Peyton to run Peyton’s offense.  And I don’t see legendary egomaniac and control freak Mike Shanahan getting on board with that. Especially when his own kid is the offensive coordinator.  So cross them off the list.

Next, the Jets…Never gonna happen. Down the line all of the Mannings, Peyton, Eli and Archie, can’t stand all the Peyton-Eli hype and don’t like answering questions about it.  Why would Peyton then choose to play in New York, in an outdoor stadium, and deal with that type of media attention day in and day out?  Don’t see it happening,  just wishful thinking by goddamn Jets fans.

So if we agree that Peyton only wants to play for a winner, or at least a team that with his addition has a shot at winning, then I say the best place for him to go is the NFC West.  Which makes Seattle and Arizona  the top likely destinations. 

 I say Seattle, and here’s why. After a 2-6 start to the season they rebounded to win 5 out of their last 8 to finish the year 7-9 despite the fact that Tarvaris Jackson handling the bulk of the snaps under center. They do have a good-great running game with Marshawn Lynch (1,204yds 12td) and an adequate enough offensive line to protect him.  They also boast a talented group of young receivers (S.Rice D.Baldwin G.Tate) and a young aggressive defense.  And if we assume that Peyton and R.Wayne are going to be a package deal, then that makes their group of WR’s as a whole maybe top 5 in the league. 

But mostly the reason why I think Peyton winds up in Seattle is because of their head coach, Pete Carroll.  To me it’s the perfect player-coach fit. I think Pete Carroll is a smart enough, and more importantly reasonable enough, guy to know his limitations and what he’s capable of.  I think he’s aware of his reputation as being a sub par head coach on the professional level and will recognize this as his best opportunity to do something about it.  I think he has the right temperament/disposition to let Peyton come in and run the show on offense knowing that if it works out he (Carroll) will look like a genius and completely rewrite his NFL legacy and if it doesn’t, he’s no worse for the wear.

Plus, San Fran won that division last year.  I know they had a great season and I was personally rooting for them to win just about every game they played (except the NFC championship against the Giants of course) but does anyone really think “dynasty” when they look at the ‘Niners?  I know I don’t.  I don’t see them as the cream of the crop in the NFC west for years to come, so the Seahawks with Peyton could easily wind up winning that division next year.

If not the Seattle then I say Arizona for much of the same reasons as Seattle.  They have a better defense and Larry Fitzgerald would be the most talented WR that Peyton ever played with.  I know this is one of the favorites among the “experts” but I give Seattle the edge purely based on the Pete Carroll factor.

Next up Miami.  Being a Miami fan in no way would I be disappointed to see him in the orange and teal.  I just think new head coach (and former Packer’s OC) Joe Philbin wants to bring in his guy, Matty Flynn, who’s a full decade younger than Peyton.  I have a hard time rating my QB wish list.  IF Philbin knows enough about Flynn to definitively say he is the “real deal” (and he better know, either way) then I rank Flynn 1a and Manning a close 1b. 

Next on the list is my sleeper.  One I haven’t heard mentioned anywhere else, the Tennessee Titans.  They have one of the best rb’s in the league (C.Johnson) and always have a solid O-line and defense. I know they took Locker in the first round last year but if everyone is in agreement that at 36 Manning has at most 3-4 years left in the tank, then they should have no problem sitting him ( Locker) so he can learn from one of the game’s all-time greats.  Again, it mostly boils down to the fact that with the addition of Peyton, the AFC South is a winnable division.  And, don’t discount the fact that Manning would be able to beat up on the Colts twice a year for the foreseeable future while they rebuild.

So there you have it, my Peyton Manning sweepstakes analysis.  Agree or disagree?